TheFXSpot: FX, Commodities Rangy, Take Cue From U.S. Stocks
9  MAR
 
By Vicki Schmelzer NEW YORK, March 9 - Foreign exchange and commodity markets took their cue from U.S. stocks Tuesday, with initial risk appetite later followed by a paring back of risk positions.
By Vicki Schmelzer NEW YORK, March 9 (MNI) - Foreign exchange and commodity markets took their cue from U.S. stocks Tuesday, with initial risk appetite later followed by a paring back of risk positions. The Nasdaq Composite posted a new 2010 high of 2353.07 earlier only to close at 2340.68 The S&P 500 rose to a high of 1145.35 Tuesday, about 5 points shy of the 2010 high of 1150.50, posted January 19. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was less buoyant, and at its earlier peak of 10612.60, was still about 1% below the 2010 high of 10729.89, also posted January 19. The Dow Industrials closed at 10564.38 and the S&P 500 at 1140.45 Currency and commodity prices ebbed and flowed accordingly over the course of the day. The Reuters Jefferies CRB index close down 0.69% at 274.79, after trading in a 273.95 to 276.71 range. The index posted a 2010 high of 293.75 January 6-7. The most exciting FX pair of the day was dollar-Canada, which fell to a low of C$1.0237 earlier, getting very close to its 2010 high of C$1.0220 seen January 14. In contrast, at current levels, the euro is down 6.8% from its 2010 high of $1.4582, posted January 13. The euro closed at $1.3600 Tuesday, in the middle of a $1.3537 to $1.3635 range. Despite gains over $1.3700 in recent sessions, the pair has been unable to gain a toe-hold above that level, traders said. The euro's inability to rally is keeping market sentiment bearish, despite extended positions, they said. In other pairs, dollar-yen closed at Y89.96 and euro-yen at Y122.35, after trading in respective ranges of Y89.63 to Y90.33 and Y121.47 to Y123.14. There has been much debate about yen prospects in recent sessions, with players pondering yen strength into fiscal year-end March 31. Japanese company repatriation ahead of year-end combined with potential global investor inflows related to the April 1 IPO of Dai-Ichi Mutual Life Insurance Company (Japan's second largest life insurance co) could push yen higher in coming weeks, traders said. A Wall Street Journal report Monday noted that Dai-ichi Mutual Life set a tentative price range Y125,000 to Y155,000 per share for the Y1.1 trillion ($12.2 billion), which would suggest strong demand. This would be the world's largest public stock offering since VISA Inc's $19.7bn IPO in March 2008, the report said. Dai-Ichi Mutual will list on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Traders were paying close attention to soundbites stemming from Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou's meetings with U.S. President Barack Obama and U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner. Earlier also, Greece Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou met with International Monetary Fund (IMF) officials, but the meeting dealt with technical assistance to help the country weather the current storm, not financial aid. An IMF spokesperson said Tuesday the finance minister was at fund headquarters Monday, the first day of Prime Minister George Papandreou's three-day visit to Washington, "to discuss the provision of technical assistance in support of the government's stabilization plan." Papaconstantinou "met (IMF) Deputy Managing Director Murilo Portugal and other officials in charge of providing technical assistance on fiscal issues," the spokesperson said. A data deluge begins Wednesday in China, with other key releases expected Thursday. Trade data (Exports/Imports) is due out Wednesday, to be followed by a line-up that includes CPI, PPI, retail sales and industrial output Thursday. Sometime also this week, money supply (M2) and new loan data is set for release. RBC Capital Market strategists noted that this week's Chinese data (covering the first two months of 2010) will be hard to interpret, with the timing of the Chinese New Year holidays complicating the data. "These holidays took place in January last year and in February this year, so there were five more working days in January and five fewer days in February in 2010 relative to 2009," the strategists said. "Because so much of the Chinese data is presented in year-on-year terms, this will likely distort comparisons and may make some of the data look weaker," they added. New yuan loan data will be closely eyed, with the data expected to show a "significant drop in new loans" (consensus at CNY 600.08 billion verus CNY1.390 trillion in January). . "Part of this will be a normal seasonal pattern (loans tend to be higher in the first month of the quarter), and part of this will be the fact that there were only 15 working days in the month for banks to make loans," the strategists said. "But, some of the drop will also be attributable to aggressive efforts by banking regulators to curb credit growth in response to increased concerns in Beijing about overheating in the Chinese economy," they said. ** Market News International New York Newsroom: 212-669-6430 ** [TOPICS: MNEF01] 3/9/2010 4:23:00 PM