FX Options / FX OPTIONS / General Chit Chat

Forex Trading Signals

Matija Scalres — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 22:41:31 GMT

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Options skew

Steve Meizinger — Mon, 18 Oct 2010 10:37:46 GMT

Take a look at the change in the options skew from May 3, 2010 to October 18, 2010. On May 3 the USD/CAD (ISE symbol CDD) exhibited positive skew, indicating that the options market was pricing in greater variance for an upside move, relative to a downside move. Over the last few years, this has been somewhat typical for options skew in CDD. This is just prior (CDD skew chart 1) to the volatile market we had May in many asset classes. The influence of equity and bond markets was much greater in early May 2010. This is typically termed “positive skew” or “upwards skew.”

Chart 1 May 3 skew CDD

Recently, as of October 2010, (CDD skew chart 2) the CDD skewness has shifted to what is typically phrased “options smile.” The “options smile” is typically displayed when the markets do not have a volatility bias to upward or downward markets. Without a volatility bias directionally, the market expects roughly an equal probability upward or downward in price relative to the corresponding implied volatilities. This is a very typical option market condition for many commodity asset classes. Interestingly enough, CDD tends to occasionally look to the commodity markets for its direction, while other periods CDD will use the equity and bond markets as a clue for direction.

Chart 2 Oct 18 skew CDD

Courtesy of Livevol.com

EUR/USD Options Skew Chart - EUU

Admin — Fri, 14 May 2010 14:24:10 GMT

Below is Livevol's Skew Chart for EUR/USD (Symbol: EUU)

Is the Euro doomed?

Dollar Bill — Thu, 06 May 2010 11:17:21 GMT

Is the Euro doomed or is it "too big to fail"? I'd like to hear people's thoughts on the potential impact should it dissolve, perhaps in the areas of international trade with the Eurozone and inflation. My first gut reaction would be a negative impact on trade due to the additional currencies. I'm sure the harmonized trade rules won't go away (or will they?), but the time needed to ramp up the currencies will be long, and the likely confusion stemming from the Euro still being traded alongside the individual member currencies will add to it all.

One thing I know for sure, there will be a lot more FX trading going on -- 16 "new" currencies (the current member states using the euro), not to mention the currencies pegged to the euro. I do miss the Italian lira!

Will Trichet Relax Lending Rules to Deal with European Debt Crisis?

TDTrader — Tue, 04 May 2010 14:18:42 GMT

The euro sank below $1.31 for the first time since April 2009. Will the ECB relax its lending rules to stem this free fall?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aMSO_VQTTzAU

Loonie to reach parity with the USD?

Ego101 — Wed, 31 Mar 2010 15:19:47 GMT

The Canadian dollar reached a two week high against the dollar as reports have come in indicating the economy has grown at the fastest pace in three years. Strategist only see a bright future ahead for the Canadian economy. Does this mean that it could hit parity again with the greenback? This could be a permanent move.

Will the EU help Greece tackle it's debt crisis?

TraderForex10 — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 10:46:45 GMT

Will the EU agree to assist Greece in tackling its budget deficit? How will this impact the EUR/USD?

Dollar Decline: How long and how far will it go?

TraderJoe — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 09:36:06 GMT

With the dollar's recent declines, any thoughts on how far and how long this downward trend will continue? What are the trends telling us?

Is the U.S. dollar demise a real concern?

TraderForex10 — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 14:03:30 GMT

With continued calls to replace the greenback (including the UN Conference on Trade and Development) with a new reserve currency, please share any thoughts on the proposals. Is this even feasible? Does the present system, with the U.S. dollar acting as the world reserve currency, need to be changed?